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Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
Preview
20:00
Emelec
Emelec
8/9/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 24
Big match
40%
Guayaquil City FC
model favours
40%27%33%

Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Guayaquil City FC40%
×Draw27%
Emelec33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.29
Emelec
1.14

Guayaquil City FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 131 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.26
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.09
Emelec
1.33

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
67%
Guayaquil City FC or Emelec
73%
Draw or Emelec
60%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
18%
Emelec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
72%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
37%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
14%
Emelec 1+ goals
68%
Emelec 2+ goals
32%
Emelec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
55%
Emelec (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.26 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Emelec attack 1.18 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Emelec scores more
33%

Guayaquil City FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Emelec outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Guayaquil City FC
Balanced
Emelec
Balanced
49%Possession50%
77%Pass accuracy78%
6.7ShotsBiggest gap9.2
—xG0.75
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Guayaquil City FCEmelec

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Guayaquil City FC
5
Draws
2
Emelec
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 30%
3–10–00–00–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
FC
DWLLD
Emelec
WDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Guayaquil City FC host Emelec

August 9, 2026: Guayaquil City FC take on Emelec in Liga Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.