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Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
5/30/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 12Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Emelec57%
×Draw25%
Guayaquil City FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.61
Guayaquil City FC
0.80

Emelec creates 101% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 96 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
Guayaquil City FC
0.77

allows per match

Emelec
0.83
Guayaquil City FC
1.75

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
81%
Emelec or Guayaquil City FC
75%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
43%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
31%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
80%
Emelec 2+ goals
48%
Emelec 3+ goals
22%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
55%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
19%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
75%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.75 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.77 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Emelec scores more
57%
level
25%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
19%

Emelec at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Emelec 0–0 Guayaquil City FC

Emelec and Guayaquil City FC drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on May 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.