Guayaquil City FC 4–1 CD Olmedo: Result & Stats

Guayaquil City FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CD Olmedo

2/16/2020

Liga Pro · 1° Turno - 1Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Guayaquil City FC53%

×Draw23%

CD Olmedo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guayaquil City FCExpected goals in this matchCD Olmedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.10

Guayaquil City FC

1.79

CD Olmedo

1.10

Guayaquil City FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

1.24

creates per match

1.13

1.07

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.24

CD Olmedo

1.13

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.07

CD Olmedo

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

CD Olmedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw

77%

Guayaquil City FC or CD Olmedo

77%

Draw or CD Olmedo

47%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

30%

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

83%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

53%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

26%

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

67%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

30%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

70%

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 95 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.24 + CD Olmedo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

CD Olmedo attack 1.13 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more

53%

level

23%

CD Olmedo scores more

23%

Guayaquil City FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff