Guatemala W 1–2 Puerto Rico W: Result & Stats

Guatemala W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Puerto Rico W

5/31/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesCentro de Alto Rendimiento de Guatemala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guatemala W36%

×Draw23%

Puerto Rico W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guatemala WExpected goals in this matchPuerto Rico W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.76

Guatemala W

1.61

Puerto Rico W

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.55

creates per match

1.17

2.36

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Guatemala W

1.55

Puerto Rico W

1.17

allows per match

Guatemala W

2.36

Puerto Rico W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guatemala W+0.00on par

Puerto Rico W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guatemala W ↓

Puerto Rico W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Guatemala W or draw

58%

Guatemala W or Puerto Rico W

77%

Draw or Puerto Rico W

64%

Winning margin

Guatemala W wins by 2+

17%

Puerto Rico W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Guatemala W 1+ goals

80%

Guatemala W 2+ goals

48%

Guatemala W 3+ goals

22%

Puerto Rico W 1+ goals

83%

Puerto Rico W 2+ goals

52%

Puerto Rico W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Guatemala W (draw refunded)

46%

Puerto Rico W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guatemala W at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Puerto Rico W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guatemala W attack 1.55 + Puerto Rico W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Puerto Rico W attack 1.17 + Guatemala W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guatemala W scores more

36%

level

23%

Puerto Rico W scores more

42%

Puerto Rico W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Puerto Rico W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Guatemala

Puerto

12

2

5

6

7

8

10

11

14

15

16

12

16

2

6

20

13

3

10

15

18

23

Manager: K. Alemán

Guatemala W substitutes

1Estrada4Lopez5Rose14Gomez8Monterroso9Ramirez21Quintanilla17Alvarez19Ramirez7Ventura22Rivera11Edwards

Manager: N. González

Match Recap: Guatemala W vs Puerto Rico W

Puerto Rico W beat Guatemala W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Centro de Alto Rendimiento de Guatemala in Guatemala City.

Guatemala W vs Puerto Rico W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Guatemala W vs Puerto Rico W