Guastatoya 2–2 Xelajú: Result & Stats

Guastatoya

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Xelajú

4/13/2025

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 18Estadio David Cordón Hichos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Guastatoya53%

×Draw27%

Xelajú20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuastatoyaExpected goals in this matchXelajú

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.78

Guastatoya

1.45

Xelajú

0.78

Guastatoya creates 86% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 149 away

1.59

creates per match

0.75

0.82

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Guastatoya

1.59

Xelajú

0.75

allows per match

Guastatoya

0.82

Xelajú

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guastatoya+0.00on par

Xelajú+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guastatoya ↓

Xelajú →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Guastatoya or draw

80%

Guastatoya or Xelajú

73%

Draw or Xelajú

47%

Winning margin

Guastatoya wins by 2+

27%

Xelajú wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Guastatoya 1+ goals

77%

Guastatoya 2+ goals

42%

Guastatoya 3+ goals

18%

Xelajú 1+ goals

54%

Xelajú 2+ goals

18%

Xelajú 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Guastatoya (draw refunded)

72%

Xelajú (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guastatoya at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 152 matches

Xelajú away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.30 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guastatoya attack 1.59 + Xelajú defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Xelajú attack 0.75 + Guastatoya defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Guastatoya scores more

53%

level

27%

Xelajú scores more

20%

Guastatoya at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Guastatoya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff