Guastatoya 0–3 Antigua GFC: Result & Stats

Guastatoya

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Antigua GFC

11/9/2025

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 19Estadio David Cordón Hichos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Guastatoya49%

×Draw26%

Antigua GFC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuastatoyaExpected goals in this matchAntigua GFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.97

Guastatoya

1.47

Antigua GFC

0.97

Guastatoya creates 52% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 155 away

1.59

creates per match

1.12

0.82

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Guastatoya

1.59

Antigua GFC

1.12

allows per match

Guastatoya

0.82

Antigua GFC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guastatoya+0.00on par

Antigua GFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guastatoya ↓

Antigua GFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guastatoya or draw

75%

Guastatoya or Antigua GFC

74%

Draw or Antigua GFC

51%

Winning margin

Guastatoya wins by 2+

24%

Antigua GFC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guastatoya 1+ goals

77%

Guastatoya 2+ goals

43%

Guastatoya 3+ goals

18%

Antigua GFC 1+ goals

62%

Antigua GFC 2+ goals

25%

Antigua GFC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guastatoya (draw refunded)

66%

Antigua GFC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guastatoya at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 152 matches

Antigua GFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guastatoya attack 1.59 + Antigua GFC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Antigua GFC attack 1.12 + Guastatoya defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guastatoya scores more

49%

level

26%

Antigua GFC scores more

25%

Guastatoya at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guastatoya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff