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Guarulhos vs Sporting Paulinense — Paulista Série B 2026

Guarulhos
Guarulhos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Paulinense
Sporting Paulinense
Vinicius Caveira 45+1' (pen)
Gabriel Alves 63' (pen)
Marcelo Mineiro 59'
6/20/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Guarulhos42%
×Draw28%
Sporting Paulinense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarulhos
1.31
Sporting Paulinense
1.05

Guarulhos creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Guarulhos
1.33
Sporting Paulinense
0.86

allows per match

Guarulhos
1.25
Sporting Paulinense
1.29

finishing

Guarulhos+0.00on par
Sporting Paulinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarulhos ↓

Sporting Paulinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guarulhos or draw
70%
Guarulhos or Sporting Paulinense
72%
Draw or Sporting Paulinense
58%

Winning margin

Guarulhos wins by 2+
19%
Sporting Paulinense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guarulhos 1+ goals
73%
Guarulhos 2+ goals
38%
Guarulhos 3+ goals
14%
Sporting Paulinense 1+ goals
65%
Sporting Paulinense 2+ goals
28%
Sporting Paulinense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guarulhos (draw refunded)
59%
Sporting Paulinense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarulhos at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Sporting Paulinense away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarulhos attack 1.33 + Sporting Paulinense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sporting Paulinense attack 0.86 + Guarulhos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guarulhos scores more
42%
level
28%
Sporting Paulinense scores more
30%

Guarulhos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guarulhos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
Vinicius CaveiraPenalty
59'
Marcelo Mineiro
63'
Gabriel AlvesPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Guarulhos 1–2 Sporting Paulinense

Sporting Paulinense beat Guarulhos 2-1 in Paulista Série B on June 20, 2026.

Goals: Vinicius Caveira (45+1' pen), Marcelo Mineiro (59'), Gabriel Alves (63' pen).