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Guarulhos vs Paulínia FU — Paulista Série B 2026

Guarulhos
Guarulhos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paulínia FU
Paulínia FU
R. Moraes 76'
6/5/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guarulhos60%
×Draw25%
Paulínia FU15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarulhos
1.58
Paulínia FU
0.63

Guarulhos creates 151% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Guarulhos
1.33
Paulínia FU
0.00

allows per match

Guarulhos
1.25
Paulínia FU
1.83

finishing

Guarulhos+0.00on par
Paulínia FU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 62Over: 3862%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 63Yes: 3763%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarulhos ↓

Paulínia FU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guarulhos or draw
85%
Guarulhos or Paulínia FU
75%
Draw or Paulínia FU
40%

Winning margin

Guarulhos wins by 2+
33%
Paulínia FU wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guarulhos 1+ goals
79%
Guarulhos 2+ goals
47%
Guarulhos 3+ goals
21%
Paulínia FU 1+ goals
47%
Paulínia FU 2+ goals
13%
Paulínia FU 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guarulhos (draw refunded)
80%
Paulínia FU (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarulhos at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Paulínia FU away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarulhos attack 1.33 + Paulínia FU defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Paulínia FU attack 0.00 + Guarulhos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guarulhos scores more
60%
level
25%
Paulínia FU scores more
15%

Guarulhos at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Guarulhos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'
R. Moraes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarulhos vs Paulínia FU

Guarulhos beat Paulínia FU 1-0 in Paulista Série B on June 5, 2026.

Goals: R. Moraes (76').