Guarulhos U20 1–1 Nacional SP U20: Result & Stats

Guarulhos U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nacional SP U20

Joao Gabriel 50'

Unknown 20'

4/26/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Cícero Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guarulhos U2019%

×Draw21%

Nacional SP U2060%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarulhos U20Expected goals in this matchNacional SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.10

Guarulhos U20

1.10

Nacional SP U20

2.10

Nacional SP U20 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.60

creates per match

1.20

3.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Guarulhos U20

0.60

Nacional SP U20

1.20

allows per match

Guarulhos U20

3.00

Nacional SP U20

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarulhos U20+0.00on par

Nacional SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarulhos U20 ↓

Nacional SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Guarulhos U20 or draw

40%

Guarulhos U20 or Nacional SP U20

79%

Draw or Nacional SP U20

81%

Winning margin

Guarulhos U20 wins by 2+

7%

Nacional SP U20 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Guarulhos U20 1+ goals

67%

Guarulhos U20 2+ goals

30%

Guarulhos U20 3+ goals

10%

Nacional SP U20 1+ goals

88%

Nacional SP U20 2+ goals

62%

Nacional SP U20 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Guarulhos U20 (draw refunded)

24%

Nacional SP U20 (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarulhos U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Nacional SP U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarulhos U20 attack 0.60 + Nacional SP U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nacional SP U20 attack 1.20 + Guarulhos U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guarulhos U20 scores more

19%

level

21%

Nacional SP U20 scores more

60%

Nacional SP U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nacional SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

50'

Joao Gabriel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff