Guarulhos U20 1–3 Flamengo SP U20: Result & Stats

Guarulhos U20

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Flamengo SP U20

Unknown 29'

J. Lemos 79'

Gustavo 73'

I. Catai 55'

4/19/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Cícero Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guarulhos U2035%

×Draw22%

Flamengo SP U2043%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarulhos U20Expected goals in this matchFlamengo SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.94

Guarulhos U20

1.74

Flamengo SP U20

1.94

Flamengo SP U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

0.60

creates per match

0.88

3.00

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Guarulhos U20

0.60

Flamengo SP U20

0.88

allows per match

Guarulhos U20

3.00

Flamengo SP U20

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarulhos U20+0.00on par

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarulhos U20 ↓

Flamengo SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Guarulhos U20 or draw

57%

Guarulhos U20 or Flamengo SP U20

78%

Draw or Flamengo SP U20

65%

Winning margin

Guarulhos U20 wins by 2+

18%

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Guarulhos U20 1+ goals

82%

Guarulhos U20 2+ goals

52%

Guarulhos U20 3+ goals

25%

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals

86%

Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals

58%

Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Guarulhos U20 (draw refunded)

45%

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarulhos U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Flamengo SP U20 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarulhos U20 attack 0.60 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 1.74

Flamengo SP U20 attack 0.88 + Guarulhos U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guarulhos U20 scores more

35%

level

22%

Flamengo SP U20 scores more

43%

Flamengo SP U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Flamengo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

55'

I. Catai

73'

Gustavo

79'

J. Lemos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff