Guarnizo 2–0 Montañas Pas: Result & Stats

Guarnizo

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Montañas Pas

11/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Estadio El Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guarnizo72%

×Draw17%

Montañas Pas11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuarnizoExpected goals in this matchMontañas Pas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

0.78

Guarnizo

2.32

Montañas Pas

0.78

Guarnizo creates 197% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

1.23

creates per match

0.59

0.98

allows per match

3.41

creates per match

Guarnizo

1.23

Montañas Pas

0.59

allows per match

Guarnizo

0.98

Montañas Pas

3.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarnizo+0.00on par

Montañas Pas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarnizo ↓

Montañas Pas →

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Guarnizo or draw

89%

Guarnizo or Montañas Pas

83%

Draw or Montañas Pas

28%

Winning margin

Guarnizo wins by 2+

48%

Montañas Pas wins by 2+

Team goals

Guarnizo 1+ goals

90%

Guarnizo 2+ goals

67%

Guarnizo 3+ goals

40%

Montañas Pas 1+ goals

54%

Montañas Pas 2+ goals

18%

Montañas Pas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Guarnizo (draw refunded)

87%

Montañas Pas (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guarnizo at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 111 matches

Montañas Pas away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Montañas Pas defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.32

Montañas Pas attack 0.59 + Guarnizo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Guarnizo scores more

72%

level

17%

Montañas Pas scores more

11%

Guarnizo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Guarnizo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff