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Guarnizo vs Castro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Guarnizo
Guarnizo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Castro
Castro
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Estadio El Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Guarnizo44%
×Draw28%
Castro28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarnizo
1.34
Castro
1.00

Guarnizo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 96 away

creates per match

Guarnizo
1.23
Castro
1.02

allows per match

Guarnizo
0.98
Castro
1.46

finishing

Guarnizo+0.00on par
Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarnizo ↓

Castro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guarnizo or draw
72%
Guarnizo or Castro
72%
Draw or Castro
56%

Winning margin

Guarnizo wins by 2+
21%
Castro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guarnizo 1+ goals
74%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
39%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
15%
Castro 1+ goals
63%
Castro 2+ goals
26%
Castro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guarnizo (draw refunded)
61%
Castro (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarnizo at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 111 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Castro attack 1.02 + Guarnizo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guarnizo scores more
44%
level
28%
Castro scores more
28%

Guarnizo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guarnizo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarnizo vs Castro

Castro beat Guarnizo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Pilar in Guarnizo.