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Guarnizo vs Barreda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Guarnizo
Guarnizo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barreda
Barreda
12/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Estadio El Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Guarnizo51%
×Draw25%
Barreda24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarnizo
1.56
Barreda
0.99

Guarnizo creates 58% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 61 away

creates per match

Guarnizo
1.23
Barreda
1.00

allows per match

Guarnizo
0.98
Barreda
1.90

finishing

Guarnizo+0.00on par
Barreda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarnizo ↓

Barreda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guarnizo or draw
76%
Guarnizo or Barreda
75%
Draw or Barreda
49%

Winning margin

Guarnizo wins by 2+
26%
Barreda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guarnizo 1+ goals
79%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
46%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
21%
Barreda 1+ goals
63%
Barreda 2+ goals
26%
Barreda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guarnizo (draw refunded)
68%
Barreda (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarnizo at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 111 matches

Barreda away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Barreda defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.56

Barreda attack 1.00 + Guarnizo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guarnizo scores more
51%
level
25%
Barreda scores more
24%

Guarnizo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guarnizo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Guarnizo 1–1 Barreda

Guarnizo and Barreda drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Pilar in Guarnizo.