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Guarani U20 vs SKA Brasil U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guarani U20
Guarani U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SKA Brasil U20
SKA Brasil U20
C. R. de Souza Soares 36'
G. Razera 53'
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Centro de Treinamento do Guarani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guarani U2058%
×Draw22%
SKA Brasil U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani U20
1.91
SKA Brasil U20
1.04

Guarani U20 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

creates per match

Guarani U20
2.21
SKA Brasil U20
1.20

allows per match

Guarani U20
0.88
SKA Brasil U20
1.60

finishing

Guarani U20+0.00on par
SKA Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani U20 ↓

SKA Brasil U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Guarani U20 or draw
80%
Guarani U20 or SKA Brasil U20
78%
Draw or SKA Brasil U20
42%

Winning margin

Guarani U20 wins by 2+
34%
SKA Brasil U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guarani U20 1+ goals
85%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
57%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
30%
SKA Brasil U20 1+ goals
65%
SKA Brasil U20 2+ goals
28%
SKA Brasil U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
74%
SKA Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani U20 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

SKA Brasil U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani U20 attack 2.21 + SKA Brasil U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.91

SKA Brasil U20 attack 1.20 + Guarani U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Guarani U20 scores more
58%
level
22%
SKA Brasil U20 scores more
20%

Guarani U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
C. R. de Souza Soares
53'
G. Razera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Guarani U20 1–1 SKA Brasil U20

Guarani U20 and SKA Brasil U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: C. R. de Souza Soares (36'), G. Razera (53').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento do Guarani in Campinas, São Paulo.