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Guarani U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guarani U20
Guarani U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
Michael 41'
Kaua 37'
Kayke 66'
5/2/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Centro de Treinamento do Guarani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Guarani U2051%
×Draw24%
Gremio Prudente U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani U20
1.73
Gremio Prudente U20
1.13

Guarani U20 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

creates per match

Guarani U20
2.21
Gremio Prudente U20
1.38

allows per match

Guarani U20
0.88
Gremio Prudente U20
1.24

finishing

Guarani U20+0.00on par
Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Guarani U20 or draw
75%
Guarani U20 or Gremio Prudente U20
76%
Draw or Gremio Prudente U20
49%

Winning margin

Guarani U20 wins by 2+
28%
Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guarani U20 1+ goals
82%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
52%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
25%
Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
68%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
31%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani U20 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani U20 attack 2.21 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + Guarani U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guarani U20 scores more
51%
level
24%
Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
25%

Guarani U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Kaua
41'
Michael
66'
Kayke

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarani U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20

Guarani U20 beat Gremio Prudente U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 2, 2025.

Goals: Kaua (37'), Michael (41'), Kayke (66').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento do Guarani in Campinas, São Paulo.