Guarani U20 2–0 Comercial de Tietê U20

Guarani U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Comercial de Tietê U20

Unknown 88', 51'

6/20/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Centro de Treinamento do Guarani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Guarani U2064%

×Draw20%

Comercial de Tietê U2017%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani U20Expected goals in this matchComercial de Tietê U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.01

Guarani U20

2.18

Comercial de Tietê U20

1.01

Guarani U20 creates 116% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

2.21

creates per match

1.15

0.88

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Guarani U20

2.21

Comercial de Tietê U20

1.15

allows per match

Guarani U20

0.88

Comercial de Tietê U20

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani U20+0.00on par

Comercial de Tietê U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani U20 ↓

Comercial de Tietê U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Guarani U20 or draw

83%

Guarani U20 or Comercial de Tietê U20

80%

Draw or Comercial de Tietê U20

36%

Winning margin

Guarani U20 wins by 2+

40%

Comercial de Tietê U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Guarani U20 1+ goals

89%

Guarani U20 2+ goals

64%

Guarani U20 3+ goals

37%

Comercial de Tietê U20 1+ goals

64%

Comercial de Tietê U20 2+ goals

27%

Comercial de Tietê U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)

79%

Comercial de Tietê U20 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani U20 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

Comercial de Tietê U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani U20 attack 2.21 + Comercial de Tietê U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.18

Comercial de Tietê U20 attack 1.15 + Guarani U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Guarani U20 scores more

64%

level

20%

Comercial de Tietê U20 scores more

17%

Guarani U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff