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Guarani U20 vs Capivariano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guarani U20
Guarani U20
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
L. Porfirio 86'
V. Albanez 63'
Robert 56'
Freitas 32'
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Centro de Treinamento do Guarani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guarani U2054%
×Draw23%
Capivariano U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani U20
1.81
Capivariano U20
1.08

Guarani U20 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

creates per match

Guarani U20
2.21
Capivariano U20
1.29

allows per match

Guarani U20
0.88
Capivariano U20
1.41

finishing

Guarani U20+0.00on par
Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani U20 ↓

Capivariano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Guarani U20 or draw
77%
Guarani U20 or Capivariano U20
77%
Draw or Capivariano U20
46%

Winning margin

Guarani U20 wins by 2+
31%
Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guarani U20 1+ goals
84%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
54%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
27%
Capivariano U20 1+ goals
66%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
29%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
71%
Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani U20 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

Capivariano U20 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani U20 attack 2.21 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.81

Capivariano U20 attack 1.29 + Guarani U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Guarani U20 scores more
54%
level
23%
Capivariano U20 scores more
23%

Guarani U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Freitas
56'
Robert
63'
V. Albanez
86'
L. Porfirio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarani U20 vs Capivariano U20

Guarani U20 beat Capivariano U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

Goals: Freitas (32'), Robert (56'), V. Albanez (63'), L. Porfirio (86').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento do Guarani in Campinas, São Paulo.