Guarani U20 2–0 Botafogo SP U20: Result & Stats

Guarani U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP U20

Unknown 72', 67'

8/2/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 5Centro de Treinamento do Guarani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Guarani U2053%

×Draw22%

Botafogo SP U2025%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani U20Expected goals in this matchBotafogo SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.27

Guarani U20

1.96

Botafogo SP U20

1.27

Guarani U20 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

2.21

creates per match

1.67

0.88

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Guarani U20

2.21

Botafogo SP U20

1.67

allows per match

Guarani U20

0.88

Botafogo SP U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani U20+0.00on par

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Guarani U20 or draw

75%

Guarani U20 or Botafogo SP U20

78%

Draw or Botafogo SP U20

47%

Winning margin

Guarani U20 wins by 2+

31%

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guarani U20 1+ goals

86%

Guarani U20 2+ goals

58%

Guarani U20 3+ goals

31%

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals

72%

Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals

36%

Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)

68%

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani U20 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani U20 attack 2.21 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + Guarani U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Guarani U20 scores more

53%

level

22%

Botafogo SP U20 scores more

25%

Guarani U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

72'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff