Guarani MG 2–0 Nacional AC MG: Result & Stats

Guarani MG

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nacional AC MG

Pedrinho 62', 44'

5/25/2025

Mineiro - 2 · Round 5Arena SICOOB DIVICRED

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Guarani MG32%

×Draw28%

Nacional AC MG39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani MGExpected goals in this matchNacional AC MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.21

Guarani MG

1.06

Nacional AC MG

1.21

Nacional AC MG creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 34 away

1.00

creates per match

1.03

1.40

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Guarani MG

1.00

Nacional AC MG

1.03

allows per match

Guarani MG

1.40

Nacional AC MG

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani MG+0.00on par

Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani MG ↓

Nacional AC MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Guarani MG or draw

61%

Guarani MG or Nacional AC MG

72%

Draw or Nacional AC MG

68%

Winning margin

Guarani MG wins by 2+

12%

Nacional AC MG wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Guarani MG 1+ goals

65%

Guarani MG 2+ goals

29%

Guarani MG 3+ goals

9%

Nacional AC MG 1+ goals

70%

Nacional AC MG 2+ goals

34%

Nacional AC MG 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Guarani MG (draw refunded)

45%

Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani MG at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Nacional AC MG away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani MG attack 1.00 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nacional AC MG attack 1.03 + Guarani MG defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guarani MG scores more

32%

level

28%

Nacional AC MG scores more

39%

Nacional AC MG at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nacional AC MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Pedrinho

62'

Pedrinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff