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Guarani MG vs Ipatinga — Mineiro - 2 2026

Guarani MG
Guarani MG
FT
0 – 2
Ipatinga
Ipatinga
8/11/2021Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 8Estádio Waldemar Teixeira de Faria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Guarani MG35%
×Draw27%
Ipatinga37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani MG
1.21
Ipatinga
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

creates per match

Guarani MG
1.00
Ipatinga
1.11

allows per match

Guarani MG
1.40
Ipatinga
1.42

finishing

Guarani MG+0.00on par
Ipatinga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani MG ↓

Ipatinga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guarani MG or draw
63%
Guarani MG or Ipatinga
73%
Draw or Ipatinga
65%

Winning margin

Guarani MG wins by 2+
15%
Ipatinga wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guarani MG 1+ goals
70%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
34%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
12%
Ipatinga 1+ goals
71%
Ipatinga 2+ goals
36%
Ipatinga 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Guarani MG (draw refunded)
49%
Ipatinga (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani MG at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Ipatinga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani MG attack 1.00 + Ipatinga defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ipatinga attack 1.11 + Guarani MG defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guarani MG scores more
35%
level
27%
Ipatinga scores more
37%

Ipatinga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ipatinga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarani MG vs Ipatinga

Ipatinga beat Guarani MG 2-0 in Mineiro - 2 on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Waldemar Teixeira de Faria in Divinópolis, Minas Gerais.