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Guarani MG vs CAP — Mineiro - 2 2026

Guarani MG
Guarani MG
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
CAP
CAP
M. Almeida 83'
Willian Barao 9'
6/6/2026Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Guarani MG24%
×Draw31%
CAP45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani MG
0.75
CAP
1.16

CAP creates 55% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Guarani MG
1.00
CAP
0.92

allows per match

Guarani MG
1.40
CAP
0.50

finishing

Guarani MG+0.00on par
CAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 70Over: 3070%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani MG ↓

CAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Guarani MG or draw
55%
Guarani MG or CAP
69%
Draw or CAP
76%

Winning margin

Guarani MG wins by 2+
7%
CAP wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Guarani MG 1+ goals
53%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
17%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
4%
CAP 1+ goals
69%
CAP 2+ goals
32%
CAP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guarani MG (draw refunded)
34%
CAP (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani MG at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

CAP away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani MG attack 1.00 + CAP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

CAP attack 0.92 + Guarani MG defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guarani MG scores more
24%
level
31%
CAP scores more
45%

CAP at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Willian Barao
83'
M. Almeida

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Guarani MG 0–2 CAP

CAP beat Guarani MG 2-0 in Mineiro - 2 on June 6, 2026.

Goals: Willian Barao (9'), M. Almeida (83').