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Guarani MG vs BOA — Mineiro - 2 2026

Guarani MG
Guarani MG
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
BOA
BOA
Jackson 90' (pen)
Pedro Felipe 50'
Patrick 44', 6'
Juan Carlos 39'
Dudu Albaceta 16'
7/12/2026Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Guarani MG36%
×Draw29%
BOA35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani MG
1.09
BOA
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 32 away

creates per match

Guarani MG
1.00
BOA
0.75

allows per match

Guarani MG
1.40
BOA
1.19

finishing

Guarani MG+0.00on par
BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani MG ↓

BOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guarani MG or draw
65%
Guarani MG or BOA
71%
Draw or BOA
64%

Winning margin

Guarani MG wins by 2+
14%
BOA wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guarani MG 1+ goals
66%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
30%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
10%
BOA 1+ goals
66%
BOA 2+ goals
29%
BOA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guarani MG (draw refunded)
51%
BOA (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani MG at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

BOA away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani MG attack 1.00 + BOA defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

BOA attack 0.75 + Guarani MG defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Guarani MG scores more
36%
level
29%
BOA scores more
35%

Guarani MG at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Guarani MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Patrick
16'
Dudu Albaceta
39'
Juan Carlos
44'
Patrick
50'
Pedro Felipe
90'
JacksonPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Guarani MG 2–4 BOA

BOA beat Guarani MG 4-2 in Mineiro - 2 on July 12, 2026.

Goals: Patrick (6', 44'), Dudu Albaceta (16'), Juan Carlos (39'), Pedro Felipe (50'), Jackson (90' pen).