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Guaraní de Trinidad vs Tacuary — Division Intermedia 2018

Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
FT
1 – 2
Tacuary
Tacuary
6/27/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Club Guaraní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guaraní de Trinidad35%
×Draw28%
Tacuary36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.16
Tacuary
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 40 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
0.91
Tacuary
1.27

allows per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.09
Tacuary
1.40

finishing

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par
Tacuary+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Trinidad ↓

Tacuary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guaraní de Trinidad or draw
64%
Guaraní de Trinidad or Tacuary
72%
Draw or Tacuary
65%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
15%
Tacuary wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
69%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
32%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
11%
Tacuary 1+ goals
69%
Tacuary 2+ goals
33%
Tacuary 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
49%
Tacuary (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Trinidad at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Tacuary away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 0.91 + Tacuary defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tacuary attack 1.27 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
35%
level
28%
Tacuary scores more
36%

Tacuary at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tacuary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guaraní de Trinidad vs Tacuary

Tacuary beat Guaraní de Trinidad 2-1 in Division Intermedia on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Club Guaraní in Trinidad.