Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guaraní de Trinidad vs Sportivo Trinidense — Division Intermedia 2018

Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
FT
3 – 5
Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
7/11/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Club Guaraní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guaraní de Trinidad33%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Trinidense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.11
Sportivo Trinidense
1.22

Sportivo Trinidense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 62 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
0.91
Sportivo Trinidense
1.34

allows per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.09
Sportivo Trinidense
1.32

finishing

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par
Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Trinidad ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guaraní de Trinidad or draw
61%
Guaraní de Trinidad or Sportivo Trinidense
72%
Draw or Sportivo Trinidense
67%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
13%
Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
67%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
30%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
10%
Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
34%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
46%
Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Trinidad at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 0.91 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.34 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
33%
level
28%
Sportivo Trinidense scores more
39%

Sportivo Trinidense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guaraní de Trinidad 3–5 Sportivo Trinidense

Sportivo Trinidense beat Guaraní de Trinidad 5-3 in Division Intermedia on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Club Guaraní in Trinidad.