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Guaraní de Trinidad vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Intermedia 2018

Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
J. Nunez 88'
P. Meza 85' (pen)
7/2/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Don Carlos Memmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guaraní de Trinidad27%
×Draw30%
Sportivo Luqueno43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Trinidad
0.85
Sportivo Luqueno
1.15

Sportivo Luqueno creates 35% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
0.91
Sportivo Luqueno
1.20

allows per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.09
Sportivo Luqueno
0.80

finishing

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Trinidad ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Guaraní de Trinidad or draw
57%
Guaraní de Trinidad or Sportivo Luqueno
70%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
73%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
9%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
57%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
21%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
5%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
68%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
32%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
39%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Trinidad at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 0.91 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.20 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
27%
level
30%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
43%

Sportivo Luqueno at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

85'
P. MezaPenalty
88'
J. Nunez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guaraní de Trinidad 0–2 Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Luqueno beat Guaraní de Trinidad 2-0 in Division Intermedia on July 2, 2022.

Goals: P. Meza (85' pen), J. Nunez (88').

The match was played at Estadio Don Carlos Memmel in Cambyretá.