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Guaraní de Trinidad vs Club River Plate — Division Intermedia 2018

Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
A. Machuca 54' (pen)
S. Gomez 79'
8/13/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 21Estadio Ofelio Schukovsky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guaraní de Trinidad35%
×Draw30%
Club River Plate35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.07
Club River Plate
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 48 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
0.91
Club River Plate
1.02

allows per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.09
Club River Plate
1.23

finishing

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Trinidad ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guaraní de Trinidad or draw
65%
Guaraní de Trinidad or Club River Plate
70%
Draw or Club River Plate
65%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
14%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
66%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
29%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
9%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
65%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
29%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
50%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Trinidad at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 0.91 + Club River Plate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Club River Plate attack 1.02 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
35%
level
30%
Club River Plate scores more
35%

Guaraní de Trinidad at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Guaraní de Trinidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
A. MachucaPenalty
58'
79'
S. Gomez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guaraní de Trinidad vs Club River Plate

Guaraní de Trinidad and Club River Plate drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on August 13, 2022.

Goals: A. Machuca (54' pen), S. Gomez (79').

The match was played at Estadio Ofelio Schukovsky in Obligado.