Guaraní de Trinidad 0–0 3 de Febrero

Guaraní de Trinidad

FT

0 – 0

3 de Febrero

6/18/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 13Estadio Club Guaraní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guaraní de Trinidad37%

×Draw29%

3 de Febrero34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guaraní de TrinidadExpected goals in this match3 de Febrero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.06

Guaraní de Trinidad

1.11

3 de Febrero

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 78 away

0.91

creates per match

1.03

1.09

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Guaraní de Trinidad

0.91

3 de Febrero

1.03

allows per match

Guaraní de Trinidad

1.09

3 de Febrero

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Trinidad ↓

3 de Febrero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Guaraní de Trinidad or draw

66%

Guaraní de Trinidad or 3 de Febrero

71%

Draw or 3 de Febrero

63%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+

15%

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals

67%

Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals

30%

Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals

10%

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

65%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

29%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)

52%

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Trinidad at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 0.91 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.11

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more

37%

level

29%

3 de Febrero scores more

34%

Guaraní de Trinidad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guaraní de Trinidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff