Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guarani de Palhoça vs Internacional SC — Catarinense - 2 2022

Guarani de Palhoça
Guarani de Palhoça
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional SC
Internacional SC
6/3/2023Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 2Estádio Renato Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guarani de Palhoça41%
×Draw29%
Internacional SC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani de Palhoça
1.21
Internacional SC
0.98

Guarani de Palhoça creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

creates per match

Guarani de Palhoça
1.21
Internacional SC
1.00

allows per match

Guarani de Palhoça
0.96
Internacional SC
1.21

finishing

Guarani de Palhoça+0.00on par
Internacional SC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani de Palhoça ↓

Internacional SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guarani de Palhoça or draw
70%
Guarani de Palhoça or Internacional SC
71%
Draw or Internacional SC
59%

Winning margin

Guarani de Palhoça wins by 2+
18%
Internacional SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guarani de Palhoça 1+ goals
70%
Guarani de Palhoça 2+ goals
34%
Guarani de Palhoça 3+ goals
12%
Internacional SC 1+ goals
62%
Internacional SC 2+ goals
26%
Internacional SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guarani de Palhoça (draw refunded)
58%
Internacional SC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani de Palhoça at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

Internacional SC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani de Palhoça attack 1.21 + Internacional SC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Internacional SC attack 1.00 + Guarani de Palhoça defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guarani de Palhoça scores more
41%
level
29%
Internacional SC scores more
30%

Guarani de Palhoça at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guarani de Palhoça will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Guarani de Palhoça 1–1 Internacional SC

Guarani de Palhoça and Internacional SC drew 1-1 in Catarinense - 2 on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Renato Silveira in Palhoça, Santa Catarina.