Guarani de Palhoça 4–0 Caçador: Result & Stats

Guarani de Palhoça

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Caçador

Kaio Lucas 90+2'

Matheus Campos 67'

Wilsinho 26'

Pedrinho 16'

7/16/2023

Catarinense - 2 · Round 8Estádio Renato Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Guarani de Palhoça72%

×Draw18%

Caçador9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani de PalhoçaExpected goals in this matchCaçador

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.60

Guarani de Palhoça

2.10

Caçador

0.60

Guarani de Palhoça creates 250% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 4 away

1.21

creates per match

0.25

0.96

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Guarani de Palhoça

1.21

Caçador

0.25

allows per match

Guarani de Palhoça

0.96

Caçador

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani de Palhoça+0.00on par

Caçador+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani de Palhoça ↓

Caçador →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Guarani de Palhoça or draw

91%

Guarani de Palhoça or Caçador

82%

Draw or Caçador

28%

Winning margin

Guarani de Palhoça wins by 2+

47%

Caçador wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Guarani de Palhoça 1+ goals

88%

Guarani de Palhoça 2+ goals

62%

Guarani de Palhoça 3+ goals

35%

Caçador 1+ goals

45%

Caçador 2+ goals

12%

Caçador 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Guarani de Palhoça (draw refunded)

88%

Caçador (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani de Palhoça at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

Caçador away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani de Palhoça attack 1.21 + Caçador defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Caçador attack 0.25 + Guarani de Palhoça defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Guarani de Palhoça scores more

72%

level

18%

Caçador scores more

9%

Guarani de Palhoça at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Guarani de Palhoça will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Pedrinho

26'

Wilsinho

67'

Matheus Campos

90+2'

Kaio Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff