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Guaraní de Fram vs Sportivo Carapeguá — Division Intermedia 2019

Guaraní de Fram
Guaraní de Fram
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Carapeguá
Sportivo Carapeguá
D. D. Benitez Samaniego 39'
9/26/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guaraní de Fram38%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Carapeguá38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Fram
1.46
Sportivo Carapeguá
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Fram
1.47
Sportivo Carapeguá
1.11

allows per match

Guaraní de Fram
1.80
Sportivo Carapeguá
1.45

finishing

Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par
Sportivo Carapeguá+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Fram ↓

Sportivo Carapeguá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Guaraní de Fram or draw
62%
Guaraní de Fram or Sportivo Carapeguá
75%
Draw or Sportivo Carapeguá
62%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+
18%
Sportivo Carapeguá wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals
77%
Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals
43%
Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals
18%
Sportivo Carapeguá 1+ goals
77%
Sportivo Carapeguá 2+ goals
43%
Sportivo Carapeguá 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)
50%
Sportivo Carapeguá (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Fram at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Sportivo Carapeguá away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Fram attack 1.47 + Sportivo Carapeguá defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sportivo Carapeguá attack 1.11 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guaraní de Fram scores more
38%
level
25%
Sportivo Carapeguá scores more
38%

Guaraní de Fram at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guaraní de Fram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
D. D. Benitez Samaniego

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guaraní de Fram 1–0 Sportivo Carapeguá

Guaraní de Fram beat Sportivo Carapeguá 1-0 in Division Intermedia on September 26, 2025.

Goals: D. D. Benitez Samaniego (39').