Guaraní de Fram 1–2 Resistencia: Result & Stats

Guaraní de Fram

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Resistencia

A. Bareiro 57'

C. A. Romero Ayala 80'

M. Benitez 15'

7/5/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 16Estadio Villa Alegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guaraní de Fram33%

×Draw26%

Resistencia41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guaraní de FramExpected goals in this matchResistencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.45

Guaraní de Fram

1.28

Resistencia

1.45

Resistencia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

1.47

creates per match

1.09

1.80

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Guaraní de Fram

1.47

Resistencia

1.09

allows per match

Guaraní de Fram

1.80

Resistencia

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par

Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Fram ↓

Resistencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Guaraní de Fram or draw

59%

Guaraní de Fram or Resistencia

74%

Draw or Resistencia

67%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+

14%

Resistencia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals

72%

Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals

37%

Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals

14%

Resistencia 1+ goals

77%

Resistencia 2+ goals

42%

Resistencia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)

45%

Resistencia (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Fram at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Resistencia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Fram attack 1.47 + Resistencia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.28

Resistencia attack 1.09 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guaraní de Fram scores more

33%

level

26%

Resistencia scores more

41%

Resistencia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

M. Benitez

57'

A. Bareiro

80'

C. A. Romero Ayala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff