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Guaraní de Fram vs Encarnación — Division Intermedia 2020

Guaraní de Fram
Guaraní de Fram
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Encarnación
Encarnación
R. Arevalo 58'
A. Mongelos 54'
D. D. Benitez Samaniego 21'
W. Santander Alderete 90+4'
F. Garcete 90', 60'
W. Casanova 77'
8/30/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 25Estadio Parque del Guairá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guaraní de Fram42%
×Draw24%
Encarnación34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Fram
1.63
Encarnación
1.46

Guaraní de Fram creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Fram
1.47
Encarnación
1.11

allows per match

Guaraní de Fram
1.80
Encarnación
1.79

finishing

Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par
Encarnación+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Fram ↓

Encarnación →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Guaraní de Fram or draw
66%
Guaraní de Fram or Encarnación
76%
Draw or Encarnación
58%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+
21%
Encarnación wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals
80%
Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals
48%
Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals
22%
Encarnación 1+ goals
77%
Encarnación 2+ goals
43%
Encarnación 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)
55%
Encarnación (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Fram at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Encarnación away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.79 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Fram attack 1.47 + Encarnación defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Encarnación attack 1.11 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guaraní de Fram scores more
42%
level
24%
Encarnación scores more
34%

Guaraní de Fram at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guaraní de Fram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
D. D. Benitez Samaniego
54'
A. Mongelos
58'
R. Arevalo
60'
F. Garcete
77'
W. Casanova
90'
F. Garcete
90+4'
W. Santander Alderete

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guaraní de Fram 3 – 4 Encarnación

Encarnación beat Guaraní de Fram 4-3 in Division Intermedia on August 30, 2025.

Goals: D. D. Benitez Samaniego (21'), A. Mongelos (54'), R. Arevalo (58'), F. Garcete (60', 90'), W. Casanova (77'), W. Santander Alderete (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Parque del Guairá in Villarrica.