Guarani Campinas 1–1 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats

Guarani Campinas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ponte Preta

Luan Dias 25'

Jeh 54'

6/30/2024

Serie B · Round 13Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Guarani Campinas45%

×Draw28%

Ponte Preta26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.92

Guarani Campinas

1.30

Ponte Preta

0.92

Guarani Campinas creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

0.97

creates per match

0.93

0.90

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

0.97

Ponte Preta

0.93

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.90

Ponte Preta

1.63

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Guarani Campinas-0.26scores less

Ponte Preta-0.08on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

74%

Guarani Campinas or Ponte Preta

72%

Draw or Ponte Preta

55%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

21%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

73%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

37%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

14%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

60%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

23%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

63%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 7 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.63 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 0.97 + Ponte Preta defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ponte Preta attack 0.93 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

45%

level

28%

Ponte Preta scores more

26%

Guarani Campinas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Luan Dias

Guarani Campinas · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

3'

8'

17'

25'

Luan Dias↳ Matheus Bueno

35'

Diogo Mateus

45+1'

Jeh

54'

Jeh↳ Élvis

58'

58'

59'

62'

66'

Lucas Buchecha← Édson

75'

Bruno Oliveira← Caio Dantas

77'

Matheus Régis← Iago Dias

78'

Castro

82'

Luccas Paraizo← Airton

90+3'

Luan Dias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuaraniPonte

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots14

3Corners6

16Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots14

3On Target4

8Off Target6

3Blocked4

6Inside Box10

8Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

310Total Passes410

228Accurate Passes334

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls21

5Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1