Guarani Campinas 2–1 AO Itabaiana: Result & Stats

Guarani Campinas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

AO Itabaiana

Bruno Santos 45', 25'

Leilson 45'

6/15/2025

Serie C · Round 9Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guarani Campinas53%

×Draw28%

AO Itabaiana18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchAO Itabaiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.66

Guarani Campinas

1.34

AO Itabaiana

0.66

Guarani Campinas creates 103% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

1.45

creates per match

0.59

0.73

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

1.45

AO Itabaiana

0.59

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.73

AO Itabaiana

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

AO Itabaiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

82%

Guarani Campinas or AO Itabaiana

72%

Draw or AO Itabaiana

47%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

26%

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

74%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

39%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

15%

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals

48%

AO Itabaiana 2+ goals

14%

AO Itabaiana 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

74%

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.73 · 22 matches

AO Itabaiana away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.45 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

AO Itabaiana attack 0.59 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

53%

level

28%

AO Itabaiana scores more

18%

Guarani Campinas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

25'

38'

44'

45'

45'

46'

Kaua Jesus← Rafael Bilu

46'

Karl← Elimar

63'

Vini Locatelli← Gabriel Henrique

64'

Rian Kelvi← Caio Mello

64'

Mirandinha← Isaque

65'

Karl

69'

72'

Nathan Camargo

74'

Deni Junior← Bruno Santos

76'

Kaua Jesus

79'

Mateus Sarara← Diego Torres

80'

80'

88'

90+2'

Guarani

AO

1

Jefferson

3

Betao

25

Fagundes

6

▼

Kevin

7

Coppetti

8

▼

Henrique

20

▼

Oya

23

▼

Elimar

9

▼

Vitor

26

⚽

13

1

2

3

4

6

5

8

▼

Mello

10

▼

Torres

7

▼

Isaque

11

▼

Bilu

9

⚽2

▼

Santos

Manager: Marcelo Fernandes

46'▲Kaua Jesus←▼Rafael Bilu

64'▲Rian Kelvi←▼Caio Mello

64'▲Mirandinha←▼Isaque

74'▲Deni Junior←▼Bruno Santos

79'▲Mateus Sarara←▼Diego Torres

Guarani Campinas substitutes

12Junior22Galvao13Lucao14Silva16Vitinho15Kelvi18Sarara20Giva21Jesus17Mirandinha23Miguel19Junior

Manager: Roberto Cavalo

9'▲Kauan Santos←▼Kevin

46'▲Karl←▼Elimar

63'▲Vini Locatelli←▼Gabriel Henrique

80'▲Robinho←▼Joao Vitor

80'▲David←▼Fabricio Oya

AO Itabaiana substitutes

2Alagoano15Karl16Robinho18David19Crecci21Fredson22Santos29Locatelli30Jackson12Souza

Serie C: Guarani Campinas 2–1 AO Itabaiana

Guarani Campinas beat AO Itabaiana 2-1 in Serie C on June 15, 2025.

Goals: Bruno Santos (25', 45'), Leilson (45').

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas.

Guarani Campinas vs AO Itabaiana — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Guarani Campinas 2–1 AO Itabaiana