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Guapo M19 U20 vs Vila Nova U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Guapo M19 U20
Guapo M19 U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vila Nova U20
Vila Nova U20
5/3/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Valdir Cândido de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guapo M19 U2029%
×Draw23%
Vila Nova U2047%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guapo M19 U20
1.35
Vila Nova U20
1.77

Vila Nova U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

creates per match

Guapo M19 U20
1.33
Vila Nova U20
1.86

allows per match

Guapo M19 U20
1.67
Vila Nova U20
1.36

finishing

Guapo M19 U20+0.00on par
Vila Nova U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guapo M19 U20 ↓

Vila Nova U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Guapo M19 U20 or draw
53%
Guapo M19 U20 or Vila Nova U20
77%
Draw or Vila Nova U20
71%

Winning margin

Guapo M19 U20 wins by 2+
13%
Vila Nova U20 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Guapo M19 U20 1+ goals
74%
Guapo M19 U20 2+ goals
39%
Guapo M19 U20 3+ goals
15%
Vila Nova U20 1+ goals
83%
Vila Nova U20 2+ goals
53%
Vila Nova U20 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Guapo M19 U20 (draw refunded)
38%
Vila Nova U20 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guapo M19 U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Vila Nova U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guapo M19 U20 attack 1.33 + Vila Nova U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Vila Nova U20 attack 1.86 + Guapo M19 U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guapo M19 U20 scores more
29%
level
23%
Vila Nova U20 scores more
47%

Vila Nova U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vila Nova U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Guapo M19 U20 1–2 Vila Nova U20

Vila Nova U20 beat Guapo M19 U20 2-1 in Goiano U20 on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Valdir Cândido de Queiroz in Guapó, Goiás.