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Guapo M19 U20 vs Royal U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Guapo M19 U20
Guapo M19 U20
FT
3 – 1
Royal U20
Royal U20
3/1/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Valdir Cândido de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guapo M19 U2035%
×Draw27%
Royal U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guapo M19 U20
1.22
Royal U20
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Guapo M19 U20
1.33
Royal U20
0.94

allows per match

Guapo M19 U20
1.67
Royal U20
1.11

finishing

Guapo M19 U20+0.00on par
Royal U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guapo M19 U20 ↓

Royal U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guapo M19 U20 or draw
62%
Guapo M19 U20 or Royal U20
73%
Draw or Royal U20
65%

Winning margin

Guapo M19 U20 wins by 2+
15%
Royal U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guapo M19 U20 1+ goals
70%
Guapo M19 U20 2+ goals
34%
Guapo M19 U20 3+ goals
12%
Royal U20 1+ goals
73%
Royal U20 2+ goals
37%
Royal U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Guapo M19 U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Royal U20 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guapo M19 U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Royal U20 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guapo M19 U20 attack 1.33 + Royal U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Royal U20 attack 0.94 + Guapo M19 U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guapo M19 U20 scores more
35%
level
27%
Royal U20 scores more
38%

Royal U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Royal U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guapo M19 U20 vs Royal U20

Guapo M19 U20 beat Royal U20 3-1 in Goiano U20 on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Valdir Cândido de Queiroz in Guapó, Goiás.