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Guapo M19 U20 vs Aparecidense U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Guapo M19 U20
Guapo M19 U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aparecidense U20
Aparecidense U20
4/19/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Valdir Cândido de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guapo M19 U2042%
×Draw25%
Aparecidense U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guapo M19 U20
1.49
Aparecidense U20
1.28

Guapo M19 U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Guapo M19 U20
1.33
Aparecidense U20
0.90

allows per match

Guapo M19 U20
1.67
Aparecidense U20
1.65

finishing

Guapo M19 U20+0.00on par
Aparecidense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guapo M19 U20 ↓

Aparecidense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Guapo M19 U20 or draw
67%
Guapo M19 U20 or Aparecidense U20
75%
Draw or Aparecidense U20
58%

Winning margin

Guapo M19 U20 wins by 2+
21%
Aparecidense U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guapo M19 U20 1+ goals
77%
Guapo M19 U20 2+ goals
44%
Guapo M19 U20 3+ goals
19%
Aparecidense U20 1+ goals
72%
Aparecidense U20 2+ goals
37%
Aparecidense U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Guapo M19 U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Aparecidense U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guapo M19 U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Aparecidense U20 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guapo M19 U20 attack 1.33 + Aparecidense U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Aparecidense U20 attack 0.90 + Guapo M19 U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guapo M19 U20 scores more
42%
level
25%
Aparecidense U20 scores more
33%

Guapo M19 U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guapo M19 U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Guapo M19 U20 1–2 Aparecidense U20

Aparecidense U20 beat Guapo M19 U20 2-1 in Goiano U20 on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Valdir Cândido de Queiroz in Guapó, Goiás.