Guangzhou R&F 6–1 Suzhou Dongwu: Result & Stats

Guangzhou R&F

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Suzhou Dongwu

Song Wenjie 68', 51'

R. Zivkovic 54', 31'

Renatinho 43', 25'

Tang Chuang 90+1'

11/29/2020

FA Cup · 2nd RoundJiangyin Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Guangzhou R&F54%

×Draw20%

Suzhou Dongwu25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou R&FExpected goals in this matchSuzhou Dongwu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.50

Guangzhou R&F

2.25

Suzhou Dongwu

1.50

Guangzhou R&F creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

3.00

creates per match

1.67

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F

3.00

Suzhou Dongwu

1.67

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F

1.33

Suzhou Dongwu

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Suzhou Dongwu →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw

75%

Guangzhou R&F or Suzhou Dongwu

80%

Draw or Suzhou Dongwu

46%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

33%

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

89%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

65%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

39%

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals

78%

Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals

44%

Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

68%

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Suzhou Dongwu away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 3.00 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.67 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more

54%

level

20%

Suzhou Dongwu scores more

25%

Guangzhou R&F at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guangzhou R&F will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Renatinho

31'

R. Zivkovic

43'

Renatinho

46'

Tang Chuang← Zheng Yi

51'

Song Wenjie

54'

R. Zivkovic

62'

Lu Lin← Chang Feiya

62'

Wu Chengru← R. Zivkovic

62'

Chen Zhizhao← Renatinho

65'

Chris Shimbayev← Tan Fucheng

68'

Song Wenjie

71'

Wang Peng← Ye Chugui

73'

Abas'haji Awut← Gou Junchen

85'

Jin Shang← J. Iloki

85'

Huang Lei← Zhang Jingzhe

90+1'

Tang Chuang

Guangzhou

Suzhou

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Renatinho

⚽2

Wenjie

⚽2

▼

Zivkovic

Manager: G. van Bronckhorst

62'▲Lu Lin←▼Chang Feiya

62'▲Wu Chengru←▼R. Zivkovic

62'▲Chen Zhizhao←▼Renatinho

71'▲Wang Peng←▼Ye Chugui

Guangzhou R&F substitutes

23Lin28Chengru32Zhizhao30Peng1Yuelei4Gong5Songyi17Yuncheng37Yongjun41Jinliang42Huapeng

Manager: G. White

46'▲Tang Chuang←▼Zheng Yi

65'▲Chris Shimbayev←▼Tan Fucheng

73'▲Abas'haji Awut←▼Gou Junchen

85'▲Jin Shang←▼J. Iloki

85'▲Huang Lei←▼Zhang Jingzhe

Suzhou Dongwu substitutes

4Chuang19Shimbayev20Awut7Shang37Lei1Chuang18Linfeng24Yonghao30Linguang33Yang36Xingyu