Guangzhou R&F 1–4 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Guangzhou R&F

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Ye Chugui 74' (pen)

Yang Yiming 43'

Ma Fuyu 39'

Mao Ziyu 30'

Luo Jing 14'

12/31/2022

Super League · Round 34Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou R&F42%

×Draw22%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou R&FExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.68

Guangzhou R&F

1.83

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.59

creates per match

1.25

2.10

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F

1.59

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.25

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F

2.10

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw

64%

Guangzhou R&F or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

78%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

58%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

22%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

84%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

54%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

28%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

81%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

50%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

54%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.10 · 68 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.59 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.83

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Guangzhou R&F defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more

42%

level

22%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

36%

Guangzhou R&F at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guangzhou R&F will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Luo Jing

Shijiazhuang Y. J. · F

9.2

Match Events

4'

Jin Bo

14'

Luo Jing↳ Zhang Xiangshuo

23'

Liangkuan Jin

30'

Mao Ziyu

39'

Ma Fuyu

43'

Yang Yiming↳ Luo Jing

46'

Su Yuliang← Yang Yang

46'

Ye Chugui← Sun Delin

46'

Ling Chuanbin← Li Yongjia

46'

Zhang Yue← Ma Fuyu

64'

Zhuo Zhenkai← Mao Ziyu

64'

Tian Ke← Guo Yunqi

65'

Li Zhuoxuan← Wen Yongjun

70'

Ren Shizhe← Li Hong

70'

Yu Zhengzhou← Zhou Jianyi

73'

Chuqi HuangPenalty confirmed

74'

Ye ChuguiPenalty

79'

Liu Chao← Jin Liangkuan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuangzhouShijiazhuang

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots25

2Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots25

6On Target10

4Off Target9

5Blocked6

9Inside Box16

6Outside Box9

Passing

46%Possession54%

478Total Passes545

392Accurate Passes487

82%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1