Guangzhou R&F 2–5 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Guangzhou R&F

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 3

SHANGHAI SIPG

3/18/2018

Super League · Round 3Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou R&F26%

×Draw22%

SHANGHAI SIPG52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou R&FExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.00

Guangzhou R&F

1.35

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.00

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 48% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 122 away

1.59

creates per match

1.90

2.10

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F

1.59

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.90

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F

2.10

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw

48%

Guangzhou R&F or SHANGHAI SIPG

78%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

74%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

11%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

74%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

39%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

15%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

86%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

59%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

33%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.10 · 68 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.59 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.90 + Guangzhou R&F defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more

26%

level

22%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

52%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff