Guangzhou R&F 1–1 Shanghai Shenhua: Result & Stats

Guangzhou R&F

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shanghai Shenhua

Guilherme 88'

Fulangxisi Aidi 31'

12/14/2022

Super League · Round 31Jinjiang Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou R&F31%

×Draw23%

Shanghai Shenhua46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou R&FExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.77

Guangzhou R&F

1.41

Shanghai Shenhua

1.77

Shanghai Shenhua creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 119 away

1.59

creates per match

1.43

2.10

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F

1.59

Shanghai Shenhua

1.43

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F

2.10

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw

54%

Guangzhou R&F or Shanghai Shenhua

77%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

69%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

14%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

76%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

41%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

17%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

83%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

53%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

40%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.10 · 68 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.59 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.43 + Guangzhou R&F defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more

31%

level

23%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

46%

Shanghai Shenhua at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Guilherme

Guangzhou R&F · M

8.0

Match Events

30'

Fu Yuncheng

31'

Fulangxisi Aidi

46'

Ye Chugui← Zhang Gong

46'

Liao Jiajun← Tang Miao

61'

Tixiang Li

61'

Yunding Cao

62'

Liu Ruofan← Zhu Jianrong

62'

Xu Yougang← D. Wang Yi

62'

A. N'Doumbou← Sun Shilin

66'

Gui Hong← Fu Yuncheng

68'

Song Wenjie

76'

Chang Feiya← Wen Yongjun

82'

Haijian Wang

83'

J. Cardona← Li Yongjia

83'

Jiang Shenglong← Bai Jiajun

88'

Guilherme

90+3'

Zhou Junchen← Peng Xinli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuangzhouShanghai

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots7

3Corners1

12Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots7

6On Target3

1Off Target3

3Blocked1

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

494Total Passes428

413Accurate Passes334

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

2Offsides2