Guangzhou R&F 0–1 Meizhou Kejia: Result & Stats

Guangzhou R&F

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Meizhou Kejia

11/12/2022

Super League · Round 25Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Guangzhou R&F44%

×Draw23%

Meizhou Kejia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou R&FExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.52

Guangzhou R&F

1.79

Meizhou Kejia

1.52

Guangzhou R&F creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 62 away

1.59

creates per match

0.94

2.10

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F

1.59

Meizhou Kejia

0.94

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F

2.10

Meizhou Kejia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw

67%

Guangzhou R&F or Meizhou Kejia

77%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

56%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

24%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

83%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

53%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

26%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

78%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

45%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

57%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.10 · 68 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.59 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 + Guangzhou R&F defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more

44%

level

23%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

33%

Guangzhou R&F at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guangzhou R&F will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff