Guangzhou R&F 0–2 Jiangsu Suning: Result & Stats

Guangzhou R&F

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Jiangsu Suning

Alex Teixeira 35', 22'

8/9/2020

Super League · Round 4Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Guangzhou R&F32%

×Draw23%

Jiangsu Suning45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou R&FExpected goals in this matchJiangsu Suning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.82

Guangzhou R&F

1.52

Jiangsu Suning

1.82

Jiangsu Suning creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 39 away

1.59

creates per match

1.54

2.10

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F

1.59

Jiangsu Suning

1.54

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F

2.10

Jiangsu Suning

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Jiangsu Suning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw

55%

Guangzhou R&F or Jiangsu Suning

77%

Draw or Jiangsu Suning

68%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

15%

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

78%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

45%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

20%

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals

84%

Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals

54%

Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

42%

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.10 · 68 matches

Jiangsu Suning away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.59 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.54 + Guangzhou R&F defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more

32%

level

23%

Jiangsu Suning scores more

45%

Jiangsu Suning at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Alex Teixeira

Jiangsu Suning · F

8.5

Match Events

19'

Tixiang Li

22'

Alex Teixeira↳ João Miranda

35'

Alex Teixeira↳ E. Martins

46'

Ye Chugui← Chun Lok Tan

61'

Abduhamit Abdugheni← Huang Zichang

61'

Luo Jing← Zhang Cheng

67'

D. Saba← Chang Feiya

77'

Tian Yinong← Ji Xiang

77'

I. Santini← E. Martins

78'

João Miranda

82'

Xi Wu

84'

Li Songyi← Huang Zhengyu

88'

Li Ang← M. Wakaso

89'

Chugui Ye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuangzhouJiangsu

Overview

63%Possession37%

8Total Shots15

3Corners4

13Fouls21

Shots

8Total Shots15

4On Target3

2Off Target9

2Blocked3

5Inside Box6

3Outside Box9

Passing

63%Possession37%

515Total Passes292

452Accurate Passes234

88%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls21

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0