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Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Renhe — Super League 2018

Guangzhou R&F
Guangzhou R&F
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
5/18/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guangzhou R&F45%
×Draw23%
Beijing Renhe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou R&F
1.78
Beijing Renhe
1.45

Guangzhou R&F creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 30 away

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F
1.59
Beijing Renhe
0.80

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F
2.10
Beijing Renhe
1.97

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw
68%
Guangzhou R&F or Beijing Renhe
77%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
55%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+
24%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals
83%
Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals
53%
Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals
26%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
77%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
42%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)
59%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.10 · 68 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.59 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.78

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Guangzhou R&F defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more
45%
level
23%
Beijing Renhe scores more
32%

Guangzhou R&F at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guangzhou R&F will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Renhe

Guangzhou R&F beat Beijing Renhe 3-1 in Super League on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Yuexiushan Stadium in Guangzhou.