Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5–0 Qingdao Huanghai

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Qingdao Huanghai

8/11/2021

Super League · Round 14Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC64%

×Draw20%

Qingdao Huanghai15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchQingdao Huanghai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.88

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.04

Qingdao Huanghai

0.88

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 132% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 22 away

2.04

creates per match

0.73

1.03

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.04

Qingdao Huanghai

0.73

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.03

Qingdao Huanghai

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

85%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Qingdao Huanghai

80%

Draw or Qingdao Huanghai

36%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

40%

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

87%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

60%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

33%

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals

59%

Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals

22%

Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

81%

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.04

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.73 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

64%

level

20%

Qingdao Huanghai scores more

15%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff