Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1–1 Nanjing City

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nanjing City

9/9/2023

League One · Round 22Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC40%

×Draw28%

Nanjing City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchNanjing City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.08

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.26

Nanjing City

1.08

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 86 away

1.17

creates per match

1.03

1.13

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.17

Nanjing City

1.03

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.13

Nanjing City

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Nanjing City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Nanjing City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

68%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Nanjing City

72%

Draw or Nanjing City

60%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

18%

Nanjing City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

72%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

36%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

13%

Nanjing City 1+ goals

66%

Nanjing City 2+ goals

29%

Nanjing City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

56%

Nanjing City (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Nanjing City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.17 + Nanjing City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nanjing City attack 1.03 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

40%

level

28%

Nanjing City scores more

32%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff