Guangzhou Evergrande FC 4–0 Melbourne Victory

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Melbourne Victory

4/10/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC51%

×Draw21%

Melbourne Victory27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.46

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.05

Melbourne Victory

1.46

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

1.28

creates per match

0.91

2.00

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.28

Melbourne Victory

0.91

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.00

Melbourne Victory

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

73%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Melbourne Victory

79%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

49%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

30%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

87%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

61%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

33%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

77%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

43%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

65%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Melbourne Victory defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.05

Melbourne Victory attack 0.91 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

51%

level

21%

Melbourne Victory scores more

27%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff