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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
CANC
13:00
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
12/4/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Al Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC40%
×Draw24%
Johor Darul Takzim FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.62
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.28
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.08

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.96

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
64%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Johor Darul Takzim FC
76%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
60%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
20%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
80%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
48%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
22%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
79%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
45%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
52%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.62

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
40%
level
24%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
36%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — Match Preview

Guangzhou Evergrande FC face Johor Darul Takzim FC on December 4, 2020 in this AFC Champions League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC host Johor Darul Takzim FC at Al Janoub Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.