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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
11/26/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Jinjiang Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC54%
×Draw23%
Henan Jianye23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.77
Henan Jianye
1.06

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 121 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
Henan Jianye
1.09

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
Henan Jianye
1.51

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
77%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Henan Jianye
77%
Draw or Henan Jianye
46%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
30%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
83%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
53%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
26%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
65%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
29%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
70%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.51 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Henan Jianye defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.77

Henan Jianye attack 1.09 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
54%
level
23%
Henan Jianye scores more
23%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye

Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in Super League on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Jinjiang Sports Center in Jinjiang.