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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye — FA Cup 2019

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
9/18/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundDalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC37%
×Draw26%
Henan Jianye37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.34
Henan Jianye
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.43
Henan Jianye
1.42

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.29
Henan Jianye
1.25

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
63%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Henan Jianye
74%
Draw or Henan Jianye
63%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
17%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
74%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
39%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
15%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
74%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
39%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
50%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.43 + Henan Jianye defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Henan Jianye attack 1.42 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
37%
level
26%
Henan Jianye scores more
37%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2–0 Henan Jianye

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Henan Jianye 2-0 in FA Cup on September 18, 2020.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.